ManuScript Details
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Paper Id:
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IJARW3217
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Title:
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FORECASTING THE ADJUSTMENT OF THE UNITED STATES’ FOREIGN POLICY STRATEGY TO 2050 AND IMPLICATIONS FOR VIETNAM’S STRATEGIC RESPONSE
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| Published in: |
International Journal Of All Research Writings |
| Publisher: |
IJARW |
| ISSN: |
2582-1008 |
| Volume / Issue: |
Volume 8 Issue 4 |
| Pages: |
9
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| Published On: |
10/12/2026 9:13:36 PM (MM/dd/yyyy) |
Main Author Details
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Name:
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Ho Quoc Phu |
| Institute: |
Thai Nguyen University of Economics and Business Administration |
Co - Author Details
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Author Institute |
Abstract
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Research Area:
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International Relations |
| KeyWord: |
U.S. foreign policy strategy, strategic forecasting, Vietnam’s strategic response |
| Abstract: |
The release by the United States of its National Security Strategy in December 2025 and of its National Defense Strategy in January 2026 has made it imperative to reassess the trajectory along which this great power is adjusting its foreign policy strategy. In what directions will U.S. foreign policy strategy be adjusted up to 2050, what factors determine the amplitude of that adjustment, and how should Vietnam prepare its strategic response? Using the method of policy document analysis, the method of trend analysis applied to structural variables and the scenario method, the study identifies four structural constraints that determine the strategic latitude of the United States through the middle of the twenty-first century, namely the fiscal constraint, the demographic constraint, the shift in the center of gravity of the global economy and the relative narrowing of military superiority. There are three scenarios for the adjustment of U.S. foreign policy strategy to 2050, yet the value of forecasting lies not in determining which scenario will occur, but in identifying the cross-scenario constants – those features that will be present in every variant of adjustment. The article identifies six such constants and concludes that Vietnam’s sustainable strategic response is not to predict the right scenario, but to build a self-reliant capacity strong enough to adapt to every scenario, on the foundation of steadfastly upholding the foreign policy line of independence, self-reliance, multilateralization and diversification determined by the 14th National Congress of the Party. |
Citations
Copy and paste a formatted citation or use one of the links to import into a bibliography manager and reference.
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IEEE
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Ho Quoc Phu, "FORECASTING THE ADJUSTMENT OF THE UNITED STATES’ FOREIGN POLICY STRATEGY TO 2050 AND IMPLICATIONS FOR VIETNAM’S STRATEGIC RESPONSE", International Journal Of All Research Writings,
vol. 8, no. 4, pp. 12-20, 2026.
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MLA
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Ho Quoc Phu "FORECASTING THE ADJUSTMENT OF THE UNITED STATES’ FOREIGN POLICY STRATEGY TO 2050 AND IMPLICATIONS FOR VIETNAM’S STRATEGIC RESPONSE." International Journal Of All Research Writings,
vol 8, no. 4, 2026, pp. 12-20.
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APA
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Ho Quoc Phu (2026). FORECASTING THE ADJUSTMENT OF THE UNITED STATES’ FOREIGN POLICY STRATEGY TO 2050 AND IMPLICATIONS FOR VIETNAM’S STRATEGIC RESPONSE. International Journal Of All Research Writings,
8(4), 12-20.
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FORECASTING THE ADJUSTMENT OF THE UNITED STATES’ FOREIGN POLICY STRATEGY TO 2050 AND IMPLICATIONS FOR VIETNAM’S STRATEGIC RESPONSE
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FORECASTING THE ADJUSTMENT OF THE UNITED STATES’ FOREIGN POLICY STRATEGY TO 2050 AND IMPLICATIONS FOR VIETNAM’S STRATEGIC RESPONSE
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